Historical
Probability of Hit (PHit)
and
Probability of Kill (PKill)
Percentages

(Created 5 March 2014)
(Updated 16 December 2021)

Editor’s Note: This data has been gathered from sources where they have appeared. Ironically, it seems easier to find this data on Soviet-era weapons, since you could freely talk about the armor protection and firepower of OPFOR equipment that was captured and evaluated in unclassified sources than you could about your own equipment.

Small Arms

5.56mm M4 Carbine

Reference
NDIA Small Arms Symposium COL Robert Radcliffe 20 May 2008 (626~ kb PDF)

The original reference did not have much detail, but from looking up the history of Trijicon's ACOG; adoption of the ACOG on a large scale was around 2005; and since this PDF is dated 2008; it appears to show the capabilities of a 4x magnification combat optic on a infantry rifle.

Infantry Engagement (Benchrest)
Range	PHit (Raw)	PHit (Rounded)
0	1.00	100%
100	1.00	100%
200	1.00	100%
300	1.00	100%
400	0.9705	97%
500	0.9262	93%
600	0.8561	86%

Infantry Engagement (Qualification)
Range	PHit (Raw)	PHit (Rounded)
0	1.00	100%
100	0.9742	97%
200	0.7232	72%
300	0.4760	48%
400	0.3137	31%
500	0.2177	22%
600	0.1587	16%

Infantry Engagement (Stressed)
Range	PHit (Raw)	PHit (Rounded)
0	1.00	100%
100	0.4945	50%
200	0.1734	17%
300	0.0775	8%
400	0.0480	5%
500	0.0332	3%
600	0.0185	2%

5.56mm M-16A1 Assault Rifle

When fired in semi automatic mode, the M-16A1 achieves a 50% PHit on a moving man-sized target at 200~ meters and a stationary target at 250m. Automatic fire reduces these ranges by about 100~ meters or more.

References
Armies of NATO’s Central Front by David C. Isby

7.62mm M60 General Purpose Machine Gun

US Army estimates for a 50% PHit with a six to nine round burst:

Target Type and Mount Type	Max Range for 50% PHit
Moving Target from Bipod	200m
Man Sized Target, Bipod/Tripod	600m
Area target size of infantry fire team, bipod	800m
Area target size of infantry fire team, tripod	1,100m

Statistic	Range (metres)
Statistic	50	100	250	500	1000	1500	2000	2500	3000	3500	3750
Probability of Hit (Stationary weapon firing at stationary 2.3m2 vehicle target.	NO DATA	83%	NO DATA	47%	31%	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil

References
Armies of NATO’s Central Front by David C. Isby

7.62mm SVD Dragunov Sniper Rifle

A Dragunov-armed sniper has the following chances of striking a standing, man-sized target:

Range(m)	50	200	300	500	700	800	1,000	1,600
Chance of hit (%)	95+	95	90	80	60	50	20	5

References
Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army by David Isby

40mm M203 Grenade Launcher

Target Type	Max Range for 50% PHit
Fire Team Sized Target	350m
Vehicle	200m
Window	125m
Bunker Aperture	50m

The standard M433 40mm HEDP grenade can penetrate 50mm of RHA or 50 cm of sandbags, and has a casualty radius of 5m for troops in the open.

References
Armies of NATO’s Central Front by David C. Isby

7.62mm AKMS Assault Rifle

50% PHit on a man-sized target at 300 meters on a target range. Combat experience has shown that the AKMS is deadly up to 100m, its effectiveness falls off rapidly past that. Over 250m, effects are relatively minimal.

Penetration at close ranges against various materials are:

Material	Mild Steel	Concrete	Sand	Earth
Penetration (mm)	25	100	150	229

References
Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army by David Isby

7.62mm PK Series Light Machine Gun

A 6-9-round burst with a PKB (Pintle AAMG mount) has a 50% chance of hitting a stationary, fire-team-sized target at 1,000m under firing range conditions.

A 6-9-round burst with a PKM (Squad LMG) has a 50% chance of hitting a stationary, fire-team-sized target at 800m under firing range conditions, or a stationary standing man at 550 meters.

A PKM's chances of hitting a moving, man-sized target in the open with a 6-9-round burst (range and accuracy approximate to ±10%) are:

Range (m)	50	100	175	250	500	750	1,000
Chance of hit	97%	83%	69%	56%	42%	31%	3%

With a six-nine-round burst a PK Series has the following chances of damaging an unarmoured, stationary vehicle:

Range (m)	100	200	300	500	800	1,000
Chance (%)	95	70	60	45	35	15

If hits are scored, the target will be destroyed approximately 65% of the time.

Penetration at close ranges against various materials are:

Material	Mild Steel	Concrete	Sand	Earth
Penetration (mm)	37	127	178	280

References
Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army by David Isby

12.7mm M2HB Heavy Machine Gun

US Army estimates for a 50% PHit with a nine to fifteen round burst from a stationary vehicle mount

Target Type	Max Range for 50% PHit
Man Sized Target	500m
Vehicle	800m
Fire Team Sized Target	1,000m

If the vehicle was moving, longer bursts of 15 to 30 rounds would be fired and the weapon “walked” onto the target, resulting in the following hit probabilities:

Target Type	Range	PHit Probability
Fire Team Sized Target	300m	50%
Squad Sized Target	500m	30%

Statistic	Range (metres)
Statistic	50	100	250	500	1000	1500	2000	2500	3000	3500	3750
Probability of Hit (Stationary weapon firing at stationary 2.3m2 vehicle target.	NO DATA	97%	NO DATA	56%	39%	14%	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil

References
Armies of NATO’s Central Front by David C. Isby

12.7mm DShKM “Duskha” Heavy Machine Gun

US Army simulator tests indicate that a pintle-mounted DShKM on top of a tank has the following chances of shooting down an AH-1 Cobra helicopter gun-ship, based on a 6-8sec burst at a crossing helicopter exposed for 20 sec:

Range (m)	500	1,000	1,500
Chance of kill (%)	10	10	5

US Army estimates give a DShKM the following chances of scoring a "hit" (which could entail more than one round striking the target) with a 9-15-round burst on a vehicle standing in the open:

Range(m)	100	200	300	500	800	1,000
Chance (%)	95	80	70	50	40	20

65% of the unarmoured vehicles hit will be killed, as will 30% of the armoured vehicles hit, if their armour can be penetrated.

References
Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army by David Isby

Anti-Tank Weapons

RPG-7 Anti Tank Rocket Launcher

Notes: US tests of captured RPG-7s revealed that even well trained gunners are normally 10-15% off in estimating the range, greatly reducing first-round accuracy. Aiming the RPG-7 is even more difficult because the PG-7 projectile is seriously affected by crosswinds in flight. The reaction effect of its rocket motor turns it into the wind, and the RPG-7 gunner must estimate the direction and speed of the wind as well as that of the target.

Hit probability [ of RPG-7]
Type of target	Range (metres)
Type of target	50	100	200	300	400	500
1st round, exposed, stationary	98%	91 %	52%	27%	10%	5%
1st round, hull-down	80%	70%	20%	9%	3%	–
2nd round, exposed, stationary	98%	95%	78%	56%	38%	25%
2nd round, exposed, moving	97%	90%	55%	27%	16%	6%
2nd round, hull-down	80%	68%	35%	18%	10%	–
The target is an M60A1 tank moving at 16km/h at an angle of 30° from the RPG-7, wind at 11km/h.

A PG-7 projectile can punch a 5cm hole through the equivalent of 280mm of armour, pushing hot metal fragments and the jet streaming from the shaped charge into the target, followed by the copper slug produced from the projectile liner, which will ricochet inside a tank and often go through APCs. Armour penetration varies with range and individual grenades. Some have penetrated over 300mm of armour. At under 300m range, however, the PG-7's speed reduces the penetration of its shaped charge.

Range (m)	50	100	150	200	250	300	350	400	450	500
Penetration (mm)	265	220	225	240	265	280	280	280	285	290

If a PG-7 hits an M60A1 it has a 40% chance of knocking it out, but only a 5% chance of completely destroying it.

Although it does not have an anti-personnel round, the RPG-7 is effective against buildings and fortifications. It can penetrate 23cm of sandbags, 45.7cm of reinforced concrete, and 152.4cm of earth and log bunker. The PG-7 can plough through brick and concrete walls, leaving a five-centimetre hole, but it will not knock them down.

References
Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army by David Isby

AT-1 SNAPPER

Range (metres)
300	500	1,000	1,500	2,000	2,500	3,000
0%	54%	73%	82%	87%	89%	0%
Represents the approximate probability of a hit against a stationary M60A1 tank from a stationary ATGM launcher (ATGMs cannot be fired on the move). If a AT-1 scores a hit on a M60A1, it has a 67% chance of knocking it out.

References
Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army by David Isby

AT-2 SWATTER

Range (metres)
300	500	1,000	1,500	2,000	2,500	3,000
0%	0%	90%	90%	90%	90%	90%
Represents the approximate probability of a hit against a stationary M60A1 tank from a stationary ATGM launcher (ATGMs cannot be fired on the move). Figures are estimates. If a AT-2 scores a hit on a M60A1, it has a 67% chance of knocking it out.

References
Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army by David Isby

AT-3 SAGGER

Range (metres)
300	500	1,000	1,500	2,000	2,500	3,000
25%	60%	87%	87%	87%	87%	87%
Represents the approximate probability of a hit against a stationary M60A1 tank from a stationary ATGM launcher (ATGMs cannot be fired on the move). If a AT-3 scores a hit on a M60A1, it has a 69% chance of knocking it out.

References
Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army by David Isby

TOW

Statistic	Range (metres)
Statistic	50	100	250	500	1000	1500	2000	2500	3000	3500	3750
Probability of Hit (Stationary weapon firing at stationary 2.3m2 vehicle target. (Estimate 1)	nil	67%	No Data	78%	78%	78%	78%	78%	75%	75%	No Data
Probability of Hit (Stationary weapon firing at stationary 2.3m2 vehicle target. (Estimate 2)	nil	67%	75%	90%	90%	90%	90%	90%	90%	90%	90%
Armor Penetration (mm)	500 mm, any range
PKill against T-62 MBT	90%

Notes: The two estimates are based on differing allowances for crew performance degradation in combat. Minimum range of TOW is 65m.

References
Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army by David Isby
Armies of NATO’s Central Front by David Isby

DRAGON

Statistic	Range (metres)
Statistic	50	100	250	500	1000	1500	2000	2500	3000	3500	3750
Probability of Hit (Stationary weapon firing at stationary 2.3m2 vehicle target. (Estimate 1)	nil	72%	No Data	90%	90%	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil
Probability of Hit (Stationary weapon firing at stationary 2.3m2 vehicle target. (Estimate 2)	nil	nil	nil	72%	72%	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil
Armor Penetration (mm)	500 mm, any range
PKill against T-62 MBT	80%

Notes: The two estimates are based on differing allowances for crew performance degradation in combat. Also, the second estimate of Dragon accuracy increases the minimum range from 75m to 300m.

References
Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army by David Isby
Armies of NATO’s Central Front by David Isby

106mm Recoilless Rifle

HEAT Round(s)
Statistic	Range (metres)
Statistic	50	100	250	500	1000	1500	2000	2500	3000	3500	3750
Probability of Hit (Stationary weapon firing at stationary 2.3m2 vehicle target.	No Data	83%	No Data	67%	47%	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil
Armor Penetration (mm)
PKill against T-62 MBT	64%

HEPT ( High-explosive plastic tracer) Round(s)
Statistic	Range (metres)
Statistic	50	100	250	500	1000	1500	2000	2500	3000	3500	3750
Probability of Hit (Stationary weapon firing at stationary 2.3m2 vehicle target.	No Data	83%	No Data	64%	44%	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil
Armor Penetration (mm)

Note: Minimum range is 12 meters.

References
Armies of NATO’s Central Front by David Isby

90mm Recoilless Rifle

HEAT Round(s)
Statistic	Range (metres)
Statistic	50	100	250	500	1000	1500	2000	2500	3000	3500	3750
Probability of Hit (Stationary weapon firing at stationary 2.3m2 vehicle target.	No Data	83%	No Data	14%	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil
Armor Penetration (mm)
PKill against T-62 MBT	50%

Note: Minimum range is 12 meters.

References
Armies of NATO’s Central Front by David Isby

M72A2 LAW

HEAT Round(s)
Statistic	Range (metres)
Statistic	50	100	250	500	1000	1500	2000	2500	3000	3500	3750
Probability of Hit (Stationary weapon firing at stationary 2.3m2 vehicle target.	97%	94%	17%	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil
Armor Penetration (mm)	325 mm, any range
PKill against T-62 MBT	33%

Note: Minimum range is 15 meters.

References
Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army by David Isby
Armies of NATO’s Central Front by David Isby

105mm M102 Howitzer (HEAT Round)

Statistic	Range (metres)
Statistic	50	100	250	500	1000	1500	2000	2500	3000	3500	3750
Probability of Hit (Stationary weapon firing at stationary 2.3m2 vehicle target.	No Data	94%	No Data	50%	3%	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil
Armor Penetration (mm)

References
Armies of NATO’s Central Front by David Isby

155mm M114 Howitzer (HE Round)

Statistic	Range (metres)
Statistic	50	100	250	500	1000	1500	2000	2500	3000	3500	3750
Probability of Hit (Stationary weapon firing at stationary 2.3m2 vehicle target.	No Data	94%	No Data	56%	8%	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil
Armor Penetration (mm)

References
Armies of NATO’s Central Front by David Isby

165mm CEV Demolition Gun

Statistic	Range (metres)
Statistic	50	100	250	500	1000	1500	2000	2500	3000	3500	3750
Probability of Hit (Stationary weapon firing at stationary 2.3m2 vehicle target.	No Data	94%	No Data	61%	14%	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil	nil
Armor Penetration (mm)

References
Armies of NATO’s Central Front by David Isby

Anti-Aircraft Weapons

SAM Performance

HAWK: 75~ fired in Yom Kippur war for 22 to 25 aircraft destroyed. (0.313 PKill)

References
Armies of NATO’s Central Front by David C. Isby

ZSU-23-4 Shilka

Although the weapon was designed for use against high-performance jet aircraft, US Army figures based on tests of captured ZSU-23-4s show that it is also extremely effective against helicopters. The probability of destroying an AH-1 Cobra helicopter gunship with a 40-round burst (10 rounds per barrel) from a stationary ZSU-23-4 is:

Range (m)	500	1,000	1,500	2,000	2500	3000
AH-1 manoeuvring	80%	48%	30%	18%	8%	4%
AH-1 hovering	80%	53%	36%	27%	18%	15%

The US Army estimates that a 5-10 rounds per barrel burst from a ZSU-23-4 would have the following chances of hitting a stationary vehicle:

Range (m)	50	100	175	250	500	750	1,000	1,500
Chance of hit	97%	97%	97%	78%	61%	56%	47%	31%

References
Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army by David Isby

Miscellaneous NATO ADA Weapons

System	PKill (fighter)	PKill (bomber)	Way of firing
Nike-Hercules	53%	42%	Shoot-look-shoot
Improved Hawk	91%	48%	Shoot-shoot-look-shoot
Chapparal	50% (80%)	—	Shoot-new target-shoot
Vulcan	7%	—	Four 60-round bursts
Redeye	68%	—	Shoot-new target-shoot
Stinger	(60%)	—	Shoot-new target-shoot
Roland II	(70%)	—	—
Rapier	(70%)	—	—
Crotale	(82%)	—	—
Patriot	(80%)	—	—
1 Nike figures assume a 20km slant range for the fighter, 70km for the bomber. 2 Hawk and Vulcan figures are for a mission kill rather than a K-Kill. 3 Figures in parentheses are based on a second computer model. 4 All figures are for single-shot kill probability in an environment free of ECM and infra-red countermeasures.

References
Armies of NATO’s Central Front by David C. Isby

Aircraft Armament

Reliability and PKill of Various Aircraft Munitions

Weapon Type	Single Pass PKill against T-55 MBT	Comparative Reliability	Overall Kill Probability Per Weapon (Computed)
Mk 82 Laser Guided Bomb	26%	85%	0.221
Mk 84 Laser Guided Bomb	33%	85%	0.2805
Maverick	87%	89%	0.7743
Aircraft Guns	No Data	98%	Cannot Compute
Iron Bombs / Cluster Bomblets	No Data	91%	Cannot Compute
TOW ATGM (Helicopter)	80% (Vietnam)	92%	Cannot Compute
SS-11 ATGM (Helicopter)	80% (Range) 50% (Battlefield)

References
Armies of NATO’s Central Front by David C. Isby

Ground Vehicle Main Armament and Equipment

Rangefinder Accuracies

Type of Rangefinder	US Army estimates of Rangefinder accuracy on targets at 1,500m
Stereoscopic Rangefinder	±280 meters
Coincidence Rangefinder	±30~ meters
Laser Rangefinder	±5 to 15 meters

References
Armies of NATO’s Central Front by David C. Isby

Tank Lethality Over the Years

Tank Era	Rounds Fired to obtain 50% Probability of a hit on a standing tank at 1,500m
76mm WWII Tank	13
90mm 1950s/1960s Tank	3
105mm 1970s Tank	1

References
Armies of NATO’s Central Front by David C. Isby

M48 Patton with 90mm Gun

The influence of fire-control systems and optics can be seen in these comparisons of a Belgian M48 tank using different types of rangefinder with its 90mm gun:

Rangefinder Type	Range
Rangefinder Type	500m	1,000m	2,000m
Laser	98%	86%	34%
Stereo Coincidence	97%	70%	14%
Stadia Reticle	98%	34.5%	4%

The figures show the probability of hit by a stationary tank against a stationary 2.3m square target.

References
Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army by David Isby

105mm L7 Main Gun

APDS Round(s)
Statistic	Range (metres)
Statistic	50	100	250	500	1000	1500	2000	2500	3000	3500	3750
Probability of Hit (Stationary weapon firing at stationary 2.3m2 vehicle target.	97%	97%	94%	94%	86%	61%	44%	25%	8.00%	l + %	nil
Armor Penetration (mm)	300	Not Avail.	Not Avail.	Not Avail.	275	200	225	200	175	Not Avail.	Not Avail.
PKill against T-62 MBT	54%

HEAT Round(s)
Statistic	Range (metres)
Statistic	50	100	250	500	1000	1500	2000	2500	3000	3500	3750
Probability of Hit (Stationary weapon firing at stationary 2.3m2 vehicle target.	97%	94%	92%	89%	69%	50%	28%	17%	3%	nil	nil
Armor Penetration (mm)	425 mm, any range
PKill against T-62 MBT	75%

HEP Round(s)
Statistic	Range (metres)
Statistic	50	100	250	500	1000	1500	2000	2500	3000	3500	3750
Probability of Hit (Stationary weapon firing at stationary 2.3m2 vehicle target.	97%	94%	92%	89%	56%	47%	28%	17%	3%	nil	nil
PKill against T-62 MBT	81%

References
Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army by David Isby
Armies of NATO’s Central Front by David Isby

73mm Main Gun (BMP-1)

The effectiveness of the Sagger and PKT on the BMP is approximately the same as that of the standard versions. The probability of a hit by a 73mm gun fired from a stationary BMP against a stationary M60A1 in the open, first round on target, according to US Army figures, is:

Range (metres)	50	100	175	250	500	800	1,000	1,300	1,800
Probability	97%	89%	89%	83%	64%	50%	40%	28%	24%(?)

The relatively high accuracy for 1,800m range is unusual, considering that the sight is only calibrated to 1,300m. The shell used against armoured vehicles would be HEAT, capable of penetrating 400mm of armour. If a hit is scored, the US Army estimates that a 73mm HEAT round has a 33% chance of killing an M60A1 and a 50% chance of killing an M113 APC.

References
Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army by David Isby

76mm D-56T (PT-76)

The following table gives the probability of a first-round hit from a standing PT-76 against a standing AFV:

Ammunition	Range (metres)
Ammunition	50	100	175	250	500	750	1,000	1,500	2,000	2,500
HVAP BR-354P	97%	89%	89%	89%	86%	88%	68%	39%	17%	0%
HEAT	97%	83%	83%	83%	83%	75%	61%	33%	3%	0%

These figures are from the US Army, which has had a number of PT-76s for many years.

Penetration against flat, vertical steel armour
Ammunition	Range (metres)
Ammunition	500	1,000	1,500	2,000
APHE	69mm	61mm	54mm	48mm
HVAP BR-354P	92mm	58mm	?	?

The older, spin-stabilised BP-353 or UBP-350M HEAT rounds could penetrate 120mm of oblique, homogeneous armour at any range; the newer fin-stabilised BK-354R can penetrate 280mm.

The HEAT or HVAP round has approximately a 33% chance of killing an M60A1 tank and a 50% chance of killing a lightly armoured vehicle such as an M113 or M109.

At close range the 76mm gun can breach the walls of all but the most impregnable buildings in four (for light buildings) to nine hits.

References
Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army by David Isby

85mm D-44 Divisional / Anti-Tank Gun

Performance (85mm HVAP ammunition)
Round	Type	Weight (Kg)	Muzzle velocity (m/sec)	Armour penetration and velocity (m/sec)
Round	Type	Weight (Kg)	Muzzle velocity (m/sec)	500m	1,000m	1,500m
BR-365P	HVAP	4.99	1,050	139mm (895)	108mm (751)	83mm (623)
BR-367	APC-T	9.20	805	135mm (750)	122mm (697)	109mm (646)
BR-367P	HVAP	5.35	1,020	213mm (909)	1 78mm (803)	148mm (705)

Performance (85mm APHE Ammunition)
Round	Weight (Kg)	Muzzle velocity (m/sec)	Armor penetration
Round	Weight (Kg)	Muzzle velocity (m/sec)	500m	1,000m	1,500m	2,000m	2,500m
BR-365	9.2	792	111 mm	102mm	93mm	85mm	78mm

References
Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army by David Isby

100mm D10 Main Gun

Accuracy
Ammunition	Range (metres)
Ammunition	500	1,000	1,500	2,000	2,500
BR-412 APC-T	90%	50%	33%	8%	4%
BK-5M HEAT	84%	43%	25%	2%	–

Soviet "textbook" estimates of the 100mm gun's accuracy are much higher. Theoretically, a gun using a BR-412B APHE round against a halted enemy tank 2.7m high and 3.6m long should have a 77% chance of hitting its target at 1,800m range. Actual accuracy would doubtless be much less in combat conditions. Maximum indirect-fire range requires a 28° slope.

Penetration
Ammunition	Range (metres)
Ammunition	500	1,000	1,500	2,000
BR-412 APC-T	155	135	117	100
BM-6 HVAPDS	–	264	–	237
BK-5M HEAT	380mm at any range
BR-412B APC-T	–	171	–	146
BR-412D APC-T	–	175	–	156

References
Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army by David Isby

115mm Main Gun (T-62)

The US Army obtained many T-62s from Israel after the 1973 war and so has been able to test its effectiveness, both theoretically and in the field. According to these tests and studies, the probability of a stationary T-62 hitting an M60A1-size target is:

Ammunition	Shot at target	Range-finder	Target	Range (metres)
Ammunition	Shot at target	Range-finder	Target	500	1000	1500	2000	2500	3000
BR-5 HVAPFSDS	1st	stadia	static	98%	79%	50%	27%	14%	8%
BR-5 HVAPFSDS	2nd	stadia	static	98%	84%	66%	51%	40%	32%
BR-5 HVAPFSDS	1st	laser	static	98%	86%	60%	43%	20%	10%
BR-5 HVAPFSDS	1st	stadia	moving	94%	75%	33%	19%	8%	nil
BK-4M HEAT	1st	stadia	static	89%	69%	33%	11%	3%	3%
BK-4M HEAT	1st	stadia	moving	75%	30%	5%	nil	nil	nil

Moving targets are assumed to be at 24km/h at a 30° angle to the T-62. Second rounds on target assume a first-round hit. If an M60A1 is hit, a BR-5 round has a 71% kill probability and a BK-4M has a 75% kill probability. Figures using a laser rangefinder are unofficial estimates based on Western equipment.

Armour penetration (BR-5 HVAPFSDS, 0° obliquity):
Range (m)	500	1,000	1,500	2,000	2,500	3,000
Armour (mm)	350	300	285	270	245	215
Armour penetration (BK-4M HEAT):
Range (m)	500	1,000	1,500	2,000	2,500	3,000
Armour (mm)	432mm regardless of range.
All figures assume steel armour at 0° incidence.

References
Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army by David Isby

125mm Main Gun (T-64/T-72)

Ammunition	Range (metres)
Ammunition	500	1,000	1,500	2,000	2,500	3,000
HVAPCFSDS	98%	94%	70-80%	50-60%	40+%	35+%

The figures represent the probability of hitting with the first shot on target at a stationary tank, assuming the laser rangefinder and computer to be as effective as those in Western tanks.

References
Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army by David Isby

Non-Line of Sight Artillery

155mm AFAP (0.5 kt Yield)

Effective Damage Radius (Tanks): 120m
Effective Damage Radius (Personnel): 340m

References
Armies of NATO’s Central Front by David C. Isby

NATO Artillery Accuracy

Weapon	Munition	Range (km)	PER piece	PED piece	PER battery	PED battery
81mm mortar	HE	2	25.0	4.0	30.0	18.0
4.2in mortar	HE	4	29.0	3.0	62.0	28.0
M102 105mm	HE	7	15.5	4.0	72.8	29.0
M102 105mm	ICM	7	23.0	4.0	86.0	32.0
M109A1 155mm	HE	10	29.0	4.0	125.0	40.0
M109A1 155mm	ICM	10	33.0	1.0	125.0	40.0
M110 8in	HE	14	41.8	4.0	112.0	50.6
M110 8in	ICM	14	36.0	2.0	141.0	50.0
Lance	ICM	50	88.0	88.0	84.0	84.0
These figures show the projectile error range (PER) and projectile error deflection (PED) in metres for indirect fire by some standard NATO artillery pieces. Figures are given for both individual pieces and full batteries, engaging targets at the range shown.

References
Armies of NATO’s Central Front by David C. Isby

NATO Artillery Lethality

Calibre	HE-PD Lethal Area (ft2)	HE-VT Lethal Area (ft2)	HE-ICM Lethal Area (ft2)
60mm Mortar	1,132	1,627	Not Available in 1980s for this calibre
81mm Mortar	3,307	4,091	Not Available in 1980s for this calibre
107mm Mortar	1,461	7,270	Not Available in 1980s for this calibre
120mm Mortar	4,263	9,854	Not Available in 1980s for this calibre
105mm Howitzer	2,924	5,920	12,080
155mm Howitzer	2,230	4,200	25,800
203mm Howitzer	3,269	4,200	44,865
HE-PD – Point Detonating Fuze for use on troops with overhead cover. HE-VT – Proximity fuze for troops in open. HE-ICM – Improved Conventional Munitions.

References
Armies of NATO’s Central Front by David C. Isby

Soviet Artillery PHit in Direct Fire Mode:

All Soviet artillery retains a direct-fire anti-tank capability, and 5% of each Soviet artillery unit of fire is antitank ammunition. But these weapons arc only effective at short range, as shown by these US Army figures assessing the probability of a hit against a stationary vehicle:

Weapon	Ammunition	Range (metres)
Weapon	Ammunition	50	100	175	250	500	750 +
122mm D-30	BK-6M HEAT	97%	94%	89%	72%	50%	31%
152mm D-20	BR-472 APHE	97%	94%	92%	75%	56%	39%

If a hit is scored, a 122mm HEAT round has approximately a 53 % chance of killing an M60 and a 93 % chance of killing an M113, while a 152mm APHE round, equally approximately, has a 56% and an 83% chance of killing an M60 and M113 respectively.

References
Weapons and Tactics of the Soviet Army by David Isby